Martin Armstrong — The Guru for Amateur Investors
Updated on October 5, 2021
I consider myself an amateur investor. For 20+ years, I have been constantly looking for the best sources of authoritative information and guidance. Over time, I have narrowed down the numerous experts and financial resources that I follow to a few select ones. And I always keep coming back to Martin Armstrong. After following Martin Armstrong for 10+ years, I’m presenting my reviews of his works and my trading results using his information.
Disclaimer: I am receiving NO compensation, monetary or otherwise, directly or indirectly, from Martin Armstrong for giving my opinion. However, I do receive commissions from Amazon on publications purchased through the links on this page.
Martin Armstrong’s Investment Philosophy
Unlike some of the gurus that I followed when I initially started investing, Martin Armstrong does not promote one trade or method like goldbugs or contrarian investors. Instead, his calls are based on a complex system of cycles based on the number π (pi) with supports and resistances and his unique system of “bearish/bullish reversals.” Past market results are analyzed for patterns by his proprietary computer program named Socrates.
He explains his basic investment philosophy:
The basic approach I have always used in analysis is to look for repetitive patterns. I discovered long ago that the patterns that repeat in a given market are by no means limited to that market. Whenever we look at a chart of the historical price movement of the Dow Jones Industrial Index or pork bellies, the common denominator remains; we are not looking at an instrument at all, but at a record of human interaction with that particular instrument. Therefore, whatever we find in one market, with its abrupt booms and busts, will also exist in all other markets.
From Introduction in “The Cycle of War & the Coronavirus” (published December 2020).
Martin Armstrong’s website provides a free, public-access blog, and so I strongly recommend that interested investors check it out before looking at his pay services. His pay services start at $15/month and allow access to his private blog and to Socrates analysis on a monthly basis for most investments (compared to a weekly or daily basis for higher tiered memberships).
Difficulty in Grasping
Admittedly, Armstrong’s calls are not clear-cut — he does not definitively say that certain market movements are the top or bottom — maybe no one can? Instead, his calls are couched in ambiguous language like “a break of the XXX level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible.” This can be frustrating for beginner investors like me, but maybe this just shows how imprecise trading can be. He also does not cite specific stocks to buy or sell either.
His Reading of the Market Is Unparalleled – My Results
Still, his commentary on market movements is must-read material. Although he usually does not pinpoint precise tops or bottoms of the market, he will say whether sharp market movements are temporary or the start of a trend. By reading Martin Armstrong, you learn the trader’s mindset, things like: To really make money, you need the majority to be wrong (i.e. sell when everyone is buying, buy when everyone is selling), You can’t be married to a particular trade, etc.
Still, just knowing whether market moves are temporary or the start of a trend is extremely helpful for timing when you enter the market. As the Brexit campaign was unfolding in 2016, with all the predictions of doom for the London financial industry, Armstrong maintained that the opposite was true and that Brexit would be a boon for the U.K. Then, when the surprising Brexit result happened in June 2016, U.K. financial stocks crashed. Based on Armstrong’s analysis (from his free blog), I purchased Barclays stock, and I was able to get a 50% return just six months later when the stock price recovered because things turned out to not be so bad after all — just like he predicted.
In his April 2016 blog post entitled “Chicago Baseball,” he explained how cycles can also be applied to sports, adding, “they [Chicago Cubs] remain in a trending-higher consolidation pattern that will ultimately surprise everyone and score a miracle victory.” The Cubs won the World Series on November 2, 2016. I know for a fact that he made this prediction BEFORE the result because, after reading this public blog post, I was debating whether to put a bet on the Cubs, but I didn’t have any available funds at the time…
His pay site includes a Global Market Watch (GMW) index that is based on pattern recognition, but this is intended as an alert system and not a trading tool. I can attest that the GMW comments will change significantly due to market movements after the fact, which makes it useless for short-term trades.
And so, most recently, I have been trading by using a combination of the GMW, Martin’s own prognostications (from his free and pay blog), and his pay-site market indicators – Gold for mining companies, Energy for oil companies — to parlay these into trades at the best timing. My timing has been slightly off many times, but the long-term prognostications by the GMW and Martin have been accurate for me so far (small sample size).
Learn Economics from a Real-world Trader
Martin Armstrong is also passionate about sharing his knowledge. Here are some of his publications available on Amazon with my reviews on them.
I would call this book Real-world Economics 101 because it explains why the classical economic theories failed and the endgame of today’s fiscal policies.
This is the latest edition (5th edition) of Martin Armstrong’s masterpiece – how economics works through the eyes of a legendary trader.
The Cycle of War and the Coronavirus: The New Threat to World Peace & Battle of the Billionaires
Hardcover – December 10, 2020
Martin Armstrong examines the Coronavirus epidemic and governments’ response to it through the eyes of history.
From the Amazon book description:
The global economy deteriorated in a matter of months due to governments’ mishandling of the coronavirus outbreak. General observers may describe this event as “unforeseen,” but they fail to look at the patterns of the past that reveal the future. Cyclical behavior dominates every facet of our world, including warfare, civil unrest, and even pandemics. “The Cycle of War and the Coronavirus” is the most comprehensive review of the war cycle from the beginning of recorded history. The civil unrest prevailing on a worldwide basis can be traced to events of the past, as it is cyclically on time for a revolution. However, the current pandemic is by no means a natural occurrence-this a deliberate attempt to radicalize the world in the vision of those pulling strings behind the curtain. This book exposes the truth, explaining why the coronavirus outbreak destroyed the global economy, the culprits, and what we can expect in the short-term and long-term volatile future.
China on the Rise – How, When and Why China will Become the New Financial Capital of the World
Pamphlet – January 1, 2018
I have not read this book yet, but the events that occurred after its publication with the NBA, Hollywood (John Cena apologizing to China), and the WHO clearly showed the growing power that China now wields.
From the Amazon book description:
By 2032, China will dethrone the United States to become the world’s leading economic powerhouse. This cycle has been exasperated by government mismanagement and failed economic policies centered in socialism. With special attention to the Chinese yuan and Shanghai composite, this report examines how, when, and why China will become the new financial capital of the world.
Disclaimer: I am not a professional financial consultant. I am an amateur investor, and I am just sharing information that I found useful. Please do your own research and invest responsibly.